GEOGRAPHY AND ECOLOGY
METHODS OF GEOGRAPHICAL STUDIES
Application of modern statistical methods (LDA) for landslide susceptibility assessment is discussed. A computer model was created to forecast if an area falls into the category of potentially landslidehazardous. The model is based on the landslides inventory carried out earlier by one of the authors in the vicinity of the Krasnaya Polyana settlement (Russia, Krasnodarskiy Krai). The sites with the highest landslide susceptibility were identified, and the landslide-prone objects and buildings were revealed.
By 2018, a lot of factual data on landslide formation has been accumulated for a number of relatively small areas around the world. There are many examples of the elaboration of mathematical models explaining the spatial patterns of landslides. The most common errors during the construction of such models are characterized. It is also shown that, at least in English-language publications, there are no examples of statistical probabilistic modeling of the landslide hazard in the territory of Russia.
The structure and the operation mode of computational algorithm implemented in the R environment are described. The characteristic durations of each computational stage and the whole algorithm using common desktop PC are presented. Two most important advantages of the algorithm are as follows: 1) the user does not decide which particular set of characteristics should be tested for predictive power, 2) «sensitivity», rather than «accuracy», is used to evaluate the model’s «quality», which is more coherent considering the incompletion of landslide processes within the territory.
The model is based on six geomorphometric parameters of terrain: the minimum normalized height, the minimum standardized height, the average «terrain view factor» in a cell, the mean and standard deviation of the «multiresolution index of valley bottom flatness», the maximum negative topographic openness. The reliability of forecast by the model for the territory under study is 73%.
The relevance of a «natural capital» category in the geographical analysis is shown on the example of environmental management systems in the regions of Siberia. The value of their ecosystems exceeds the cost of natural resources that makes it possible to correct regional approaches to the formation of sustainability-oriented environmental policy. Under the market economy the natural capital is shown as an economic result of environmental management stemming from the geographical features of a territory. Application of results of the natural capital assessment allows using new approaches to the solution of administrative tasks, e. g. improvement of the natural rent management, introduction of compensation mechanisms to maintain the biodiversity, development of mineral raw material resources through the natural rent reinvestment into the development of territories, etc.
Combination of the geographical analysis of environmental management and the methodology of the natural capital assessment promotes the formation of a qualitatively new analytical research base which allows revealing the interrelations between ecological, economic and social dimensions that is a necessary prerequisite of environmental management and is well coordinated with the sustainable development ideology.
REGIONAL STUDIES
The paper deals with the seasonal dynamics of nutrients in the Mozhaysk reservoir in 2018/2019. The factors of seasonal variability of the vertical distribution of nitrogen, phosphorus and mineral silicon compounds are considered basing of monthly measurements.
The regime of nutrients in the Mozhaysk reservoir and the ratio of their various forms is largely determined by the formation and duration of the density stratification of water. During hypoxia phosphorus and ammonium are recovered from the bottom sediments. By the end of summer nitrates and dissolved mineral phosphorus are almost completely consumed by algae in the epilimnion. During the growing season organic phosphorus occur mainly in suspended form within the phytoplankton cells. Mineral silicon is actively consumed in May during the development of diatoms, while in the hypolimnion its concentration is stable throughout the period of stratification. Longitudinal heterogeneity in the nutrient content is caused by both the mixing conditions, and the varying genesis of water mass in a particular area of the reservoir.
It is shown that over the past 30 years the internal nutrient load in the reservoir has increased as a result of increasing duration of density stratification and, as a consequence, the period of anoxia. At the same time, the input of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds to the reservoir with rivers has decreased as a result of land-use change.