Spatial Patterns of Net Migration in the Suburbs of Russian Regional Centers

Net migration at the municipal level in Russia varies significantly, both in positive or negative values and the size. The majority of Russia’s regional centres are experiencing positive net migration. Population size and migration attractiveness of a regional centre appear to be critical determinants for the positive spillover effect on the net migration in its suburbs. The paper aims to validate the hypothesis by the case of 63 urban okrugs (core areas) and their outer zones, which include 75 urban okrugs, 12 intra-urban territories of Moscow outside the Moscow Ring Road, 388 urban and 2973 rural settlements. The study is primarily based on the municipallevel statistics database of the Rosstat (BD PMO). The following indicators were used: administrative data on net migration for 2015–2019, population of the studied municipal units, the shortest centre-to-centre distance by existing roads from regional capital to each municipality in its suburban area (km). The values of average net migration rate were calculated and analyzed for 2015–2019.
The net migration rate for core areas averaged 4.3 ‰. Its value is higher in suburban areas at the distance of up to 40 km from the centre of regional capital. A steady migration decline is observed from a distance of 65 km. These boundaries extend further for metropolitan areas with a larger core. As the distance from the regional capital increases, both the number of municipal units with positive net migration and their share in the total population decrease.
Net migration values in the suburbs are higher than in regional capitals, and there are a few municipal units with an ultra-high, “explosive” rate providing for higher average values. Such areas are located in the immediate vicinity of the capitals and most commonly have relatively small “base” population.
The gap in net migration rate between regional capitals and suburban municipal units, as well as the spatial localization of positive growth rate in the suburbs, indicates the peculiarity of suburban processes in Russia. The nearest suburbs become a part of contiguous urbanized area of a regional capital beyond its administrative boundaries, providing the opportunities for extensive growth of a city.

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