CHANGES OF NATURAL-CLIMATIC DISCOMFORT WITHIN THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIA IN THE 20TH – THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY
Abstract
Natural and climate conditions of Russia were analyzed using the zoning of the RF territory by natural living conditions which is based on the influence of principal natural factors, i.e. cold, heat, moisture, altitude, nature hazards. The map Regionalization of Russia in terms of the natural living conditions was updated for climatic conditions in the second part of the 20th century – the beginning of the 21st century. Possible changes of natural living conditions in the middle of the 21st century are estimated using the results of numerical experiments on the global climate model of the RAS Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM). The most variable climatic factors, such as heat, cold and wind, were analyzed. In the end of the century – the beginning of the 21st century the areas with absolutely unfavorable conditions decreased, mainly due to the expansion of very unfavorable territories. At the end of the 20th century the most pronounced changes were recorded for the Far East and Southern Siberia, whereas at the beginning of the 21st century changes are the most typical for the European part of Russia. The results of calculations using the INMCM 4.0 climate model demonstrate probable improvement of living conditions in the middle of the 21st century (by 2046–2055). The RCP4.5 scenario shows the situation which is little different from the current state (2001–2010), whereas the RCP8.5 scenario predicts the reduction of areas with unfavorable conditions by 2–4%, as compared to the current situation. The greatest changes are expected in the Far East and the European part of Russia.
Supporting agencies: The study was financially supported by the Russian Science Foundation (RSF) (project № 16-17-10236).
About the Author
V. V. Vinogradova
Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Laboratory of Climatology, Senior Scientific Researcher, PhD. in Geography
Russian Federation
Laboratory of Climatology, Senior Scientific Researcher, PhD. in Geography
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For citations:
Vinogradova V.V. CHANGES OF NATURAL-CLIMATIC DISCOMFORT WITHIN THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIA IN THE 20TH – THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 5, Geografiya. 2018;(3):30-39. (In Russ.)
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