Adaptation of an agricultural project to the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions

Using an original methodological approach, a model analysis of the adaptation of an agricultural project to the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural land was carried out for the farms in the south of Russia. Emissions from both technological and ecosystem processes were taken into account. Methods of operations research and simulation modeling are applied to the study of two options for regulating greenhouse gas emissions, i.e. through market mechanisms focusing on the cost of carbon units in the EU and through the administrative control, which sets the emission limits. For each of the options, the optimal intensity of use was estimated for each land plot involved in the project.

The proposed methodology supplements the scientific and methodological support for the analysis of the large-scale agricultural projects under the state regulation of the impact of economic activities on the Earth’s climate. It is applicable to projects with a significant spatial dispersion of plots. As a result of the study, the scientific visions of the climate policy impact on the technological configuration of agricultural production were specified. A significant margin of sustainability of agriculture in the south of Russia to carbon market methods has been revealed; It is shown that as the restrictive administrative approaches are tightened, farmers prefer to stop the intensive use of areas with the highest productivity potential while maintaining the maximum production intensity within the rest. The totality of the results obtained is recommended for practical application for developing and analyzing investment agricultural projects, including the analysis of project risks, as well as for improving the state environmental and climate policy as a tool for analyzing its consequences.

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