High-resolution modeling of hydrometeorological fi elds over the Kara Sea coastal regions with irregular coastline

Arctic coastal zones are characterized by diverse severe hydrometeorological phenomena including high wind speeds, stormy waves and surges. Abundance of islands and mountain ranges, and rugged coastline in the Kara Sea contribute to the formation of mesoscale atmospheric circulations that largely determine the patternof coastal currents. The Arctic observational network is not dense enough to reproduce and investigate hydrometeorological characteristics; therefore the paper is based on high-resolution modeling of wind, waves, sea level and currents. Experiments were conducted with COSMO-CLM non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model for the Kara Sea region with ~12 and ~3 km resolutions. In contrast with global NCEP/CFSR reanalysis the model with 3 km resolution could reproduce such phenomena as tip jets, downslope windstorms and cyclonic chains in the skerries of different scales. This is an important reason for utilizing the COSMO-CLM wind speed fields as forcing data for modeling waves and surges. The WAVEWATCH III model was applied for wave simulation; and the ADCIRC model was used for sea level and currents simulation. During on-shore wind conditions there are almost no differences between wave simulations using high-resolution wind speed and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis. However, the impact of local wind field is significant when off-shore wind is observed. Sea level modeling within narrow bays and creeks using high-resolution wind speed fields has shown significant differences from the experiments based on the NCEP/CFSR reanalysis. Maximal calculated Kara Sea surges are up to 2,5 m and are noticed at the southern part of the Gulf of Ob. Surges in the Gulf of Ob are formed two times more often than in the Baydaratskaya Bay. Long-term trends in the number of surges are opposite, i.e. minimal number of surges was in the Baydaratskaya Bay during the 1995–2005, while maximal number of surges was in the Gulf of Ob during the same period.Keywords: high-resolution hydrodynamic modelling, wind waves, wind surges, COSMO-CLM, WAVEWATCH III, ADCIRC, Kara Sea.

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