Changes of the hydrometeorological potential of thermoabrasion on the Russian Arctic sea coasts

The paper presents the results of the analysis of wave-energy and thermal components of the hydrometeorological (HM) potential of coast thermoabrasion for nine key areas in the western and eastern sectors of the Russian Arctic for the period of 1979 to 2017. The air thawing and air freezing indices were used to calculate the thermal impact on the permafrost coasts the indices represent the accumulated sum of mean daily temperatures of the warm and cold periods, respectively. The wave-energy component is calculated using the Popov-Sovershaev method. The calculations used data from hydrometeorological stations and CFSR, CFSv2, MERRA and ERA5 reanalysis data. The duration of the ice period is determined using the satellite data.

It was found that the thawing index is everywhere growing steadily and significantly, and the total potential for destruction of the shores built of frozen dispersed rocks has been significantly increasing recently in all regions of the Russian Arctic. There is an increase in the HM potential for coastal destruction along the coast from about the Kolguev Island to Chukotka due to both thermal and mechanical factors, including the associated increasing ice-free period. For the period 1979–2017 the increment averaged 30 to 95% of the long-term average, which is 1.2 to 3 times the standard variability. The most significant changes are observed on the island of Ayon, which has the most severe climate; the least significant changes were in Lorino, on the Chukochy Cape and in the Buor-Khaya Bay. The increase results from both the increasing temperatures, and the growth in the energy flows of wind waves. The duration of ice-free period correlates with the warm season temperatures, the wind wave energy, and mostly with the total HM impact. Thus, the duration of the ice-free period is a leading factor in the dynamics of the Arctic coasts, determining both temperature and wave conditions. Changing frequency of storms of wave-dangerous directions plays the main role in the dynamics of the wind-wave factor.

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