Changes in hydrometeorological conditions in the Barents Sea as an indicator of climatic trends in the Eurasian Arctic in the 21^st century

It has now been reliably established that climate in the Arctic is changing much faster than the global average, due to the so-called “Arctic amplification” effect. The paper summarizes the results of the comprehensive analysis of the current state of hydrometeorological conditions in the Barents Sea. This made it possible to assess the general directions of the ongoing changes, which in the future may spread to the eastward marginal seas of the Arctic Ocean. Hydrometeorological conditions in the Barents Sea under significant reduction of the sea ice cover have been investigated on the basis of observational data, atmospheric and ocean reanalyses and satellite information. The fundamental conclusion obtained as a result of the analysis is possible activation of feedbacks in the “ocean-ice-atmosphere” system due to the general northeastward retreat of the ice edge in the Barents Sea. The reduction of ice cover primarily affects the nature of energy exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. As a result, the regime of water masses formation changes towards a decreasing role of ice cover and increasing role of horizontal advection and heat accumulation in the upper water layer. However, the variability of heat fluxes is modulated by a combination of factors such as atmospheric circulation and heat advection in the ocean. Since long-term changes in the ocean and atmosphere are asynchronous, there is no direct relationship between changes in heat fluxes and the sea ice area. A significant increase in latent heat fluxes, and, consequently, total fluxes because of the sea ice area decrease since 2007 has been recorded while the sensible heat fluxes, on the contrary, have decreased. It is shown that the frequency of cold outbreaks over the Barents Sea, which also affect heat fluxes, is mainly determined by the interannual variability of the frequency of various large-scale atmospheric circulation modes and is not directly related to the ice area.

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