Effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the international tourism in 2020: collapse or metamorphoses?
Abstract
The paper discusses the impact of COVID-19 on the global tourism market. The brief overview of world pandemics and the comparison of SARS-CoV-2 and 1918–1920 Spanish flu are presented. Causes that could lead to the outbreak of a new coronavirus infection are analyzed.
The research propose an assessment scale based on official data of several international organizations such as UNWTO, UN, World Bank, IATA, WTTC, which allowed to classify countries into 4 types, according to the degree of COVID-19 impact on the international tourism. Information on such indicators as: the proportion of people infected with coronavirus; number of tourist arrivals in 2020 (compared to 2019); the share of tourism in the country’s national domestic gross product (GDP) for 2019; the percentage of tourism in the country’s national domestic gross product (GDP) for 2019; the share of tourism employees to the total number of country’s employment for 2019; lockdown restrictions and their duration; the existence or absence of international sanctions, was analyzed and systematized. The sample includes data on 181 countries.
The research has shown the vulnerability of states to the 2020 tourism crisis. The most significant possible risks due to the global epidemiological crisis belongs to countries where tourism is one of the systemically important sectors of the economy, and where a long entry/exit country ban or a full sanction list were imposed. Countries where tourism contribution to the economy was insignificant are the least vulnerable.
It has been determined that early and prolonged lockdown is an effective preventive measure in the fight against a new coronavirus infection. The study revealed the connection of tourism and COVID-19’s expansion around the world in March 2020. The results confirm the need for changes in the tourism sector as a response to the current social economic changes.
About the Author
M. A. Stepanov
Kursk State University, Faculty of Natural Science and Geography, Department of Geography
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
postgraduate student
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Review
For citations:
Stepanov M.A. Effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the international tourism in 2020: collapse or metamorphoses? Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 5, Geografiya. 2021;(6):27-39. (In Russ.)
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