Assessment of climatic and anthropogenic impact on spring runoff in the Don River basin

The article examines the flow features of the spring flood in the Don River basin during 1930-2017. Its large-scale changes over the past half century took place in 1980 and 2006-2010. During these periods the most significant climatic changes were observed, aggravated in the 20th century by significantly increased anthropogenic runoff regulation by numerous reservoirs. The application of the method of integral curves in combination with statistical analysis of the spring runoff by the data of 50 stream gauges made it possible to separate the contribution of climatic changes and anthropogenic impacts to the formation of modern decrease of flood runoff on the rivers of the Don River basin. According to our results over the past 40 years the flood runoff has decreased by an average of 30-40%, i.e. from 10% in the upper reaches of the Voronezh, Khoper and Medveditsa rivers to more than 50-60% in the basins of the Seversky Donets and Oskol rivers. In terms of the changes in spring runoff, the rivers of the Don River basin are divided into three groups: with the runoff decrease after 1980, after 2006-2010 and with no changes in spring runoff. According to calculations, the amount of visible evaporation from the surface of reservoirs in the Don River basin upstream the Tsimlyansk reservoir is relatively small and equals to 0.09 km3 or 0.5% of the Don River's average annual flow for the Kalach-on-Don section. However, in dry years this factor can significantly increase the deficit of water resources for most watersheds with intensive economic activity. It is estimated that the total usable volume of reservoirs in the basins of the largest Don River tributaries averages 43% of the decrease in their runoff during the flood period, thus indicating highly possible seasonal redistribution of water runoff by reservoirs with a volume of more than 0.1 km3. The potential of technogenic regulation (PTR) of reservoirs with a volume of more than 0.1 km3 was evaluated. A decrease of the spring river flow with increasing PTR of reservoirs in their basins was noted. 

1. Atlas mirovogo vodnogo balansa [World Water Balance Atlas], Moscow, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1974, 65 p. (In Russian)

2. Bolgov M.V., Mishon V.M., Sentsova I.I. Bassein Verkhnego Dona: Gidrografiya, gidrologiya i vodnye resursy [The Upper Don River basin: hydrography, hydrology and water resources], Tr. NII geologii VGU, iss. 23, 2005, 138 p. (In Russian)

3. Bolgov M.V., Mishon V.M., Sentsova N.I. Sovremennoe sostoyanie i perspektivy ispol'zovaniya vodnykh resursov basseina Verkhnego Dona [Current state and prospects for the use of water resources in the Upper Don River basin], Vestn. Voronezh. gos. un-ta, Seriya: Geografiya. Geoekologiya, 2002, no. 1, p. 112-123. (In Russian)

4. Dzhamalov R.G., Frolova N.L., Kireeva M.B. Sovremennye izmeneniya vodnogo rezhima rek v basseine Dona [Modern changes in the water regime of rivers in the Don River basin], Vodnye resursy, 2013, vol. 40, no. 6, p. 544556. (In Russian)

5. Dzhamalov R.G., Frolova N.L., Kireeva M.B., Safronova T.I. Dinamika podzemnogo stoka basseina Dona pod vliyaniem izmenenii klimata [Dynamics of underground runoff in the Don River basin under the influence of climate change], Nedropol'zovanie XXI, 2010, no. 4, p. 7881. (In Russian)

6. Dzhamalov R.G., Kireeva M.B., Kosolapov A.E., Frolova N.L. Vodnye resursy basseina Dona i ikh ekologicheskoe sostoyanie [Water resources of the Don River basin and their ecological state], Moscow, GEOS Publ., 2017, 204 p. (In Russian)

7. Edel'shtein K.K. Strukturnaya gidrologiya sushi [Structural land hydrology], Moscow, GEOS Publ., 2005, 316 p. (In Russian)

8. Frolova N.L. Gidrologiya rek (antropogennye izmeneniya rechnogo stoka) [River hydrology (anthropogenic changes of river flow)], tutorial, Moscow, Faculty of Geography MSU, 2006, 112 p. (In Russian)

9. Frolova N.L., Nesterenko D.P., Shenberg N.V. Vnutrigodovoe raspredelenie stoka rek Rossii [Intra-annual flow regime of rivers in Russia], Vestn. Mosk. un-ta, Ser. 5, Geogr., 2010, no. 6, p. 8-16. (In Russian)

10. Gosudarstvennyi doklad “O sostoyanii i ispol'zovanii vodnykh resursov Rossiiskoi Federatsii v 2018 godu” [State report “On the state and use of water resources of the Russian Federation in 2018”], Moscow, NIA-Priroda Publ., 2019, 290 p. (In Russian)

11. Katalog. Vodokhranilishcha SSSR [Catalog. Reservoirs of the USSR], Moscow, Soyuzvodproekt Publ., 1988, 276 p. (In Russian)

12. Kharlamov M., Kireeva M. Drought dynamics in the East European Plain for the period 1980-2018, E3S Web of Conferences, 2020, vol. 163, p. 02004, DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/202016302004.

13. Kireeva M.B., Frolova N.L. Sovremennye osobennosti vesennego polovod'ya rek basseina Dona [Modern features of the spring flood of rivers in the Don River basin], Vodnoe khozyaistvo Rossii: problemy, tekhnologii, upravlenie, 2013, no. 1, p. 60-76. (In Russian)

14. Kireeva M.B., Ilich V.P., Frolova N.L. Kharlamov M.A., Sazonov A.A., Mikhailyukova P.G. Vklad klimaticheskikh i antropogennykh faktorov v formirovanie malovodnogo perioda v basseine r. Don 2007-2015 gg. [The contribution of climatic and anthropogenic factors to the formation of low-water period in the basin of the Don River during 2007-2015], Georisk, 2017, no. 4, p. 10-21. (In Russian)

15. Kireeva M.B., Ilich V.P., Goncharov A.V., Bogachev A.N., Frolova N.L., Pakhomova O.M., Solov'eva V.V. Vliyanie malovod'ya 2007-2015 gg. v basseine r. Don na sostoyanie vodnykh ekosistem [Influence of 2007-2015 extreme low flow period in the Don River basin on water ecosystems], Vestn. Mosk. un-ta, Ser. 5, Geogr., 2018, no. 5, p. 3-13. (In Russian)

16. Kislov A.V., Evstigneev V.M., Malkhazova S.M., Sokolikh-ina N.N., Surkova G.V., Toropov P.A., Chernyshev A.V., Chumachenko A.N. Prognoz klimaticheskoi resursoobespechennosti Vostochno-evropeiskoi ravniny v usloviyakh potepleniya XXI veka [Forecast of climatic resource availability within the East European Plain under the warming of the XXI century], Moscow, MAKS Press Publ., 2008, 292 p. (In Russian)

17. Konstantinov A.R. Isparenie v prirode [Evaporation in nature], Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1968, 532 p. (In Russian)

18. Kritskii S.N., Menkel' M.F. Vodokhozyaistvennye raschety [Water management calculations], Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1952, 392 p. (In Russian)

19. Otsenochnyi doklad ob izmeneniyakh klimata i ikh posledstviyakh na territorii Rossiiskoi Federatsii, T. II, Posledstviya izmenenii klimata [Assessment report on climate changes and their consequences within the territory of the Russian Federation, vol. II, Consequences of climate change], Moscow, Rosgidromet Publ., 2008, 289 p. (In Russian)

20. Resursy poverkhnostnykh i podzemnykh vod, ikh ispol'zovanie i kachestvo. Ezhegodnoe izdanie. 1982-2008 gg. [Surface and groundwater resources, their use and quality. Annual edition. 1982-2008], Gosudarstvennyi vodnyi kadastr, spravochnoe izdanie. (In Russian)

21. Resursy poverkhnostnykh i podzemnykh vod, ikh ispol'zovanie i kachestvo. Ezhegodnoe izdanie. 2018 god [Surface and groundwater resources, their use and quality. Annual edition. 2018], Vodnyi kadastr Rossiiskoi Federatsii, spravochnoe izdanie, St. Peterburg, Pobeda Ltd. Publ., 2019, 153 p. (In Russian)

22. Rukovodstvo po gidrologicheskim raschetam pri proektirovanii vodokhranilishch [Guidance on hydrological calculations for reservoir design], Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1983, 368 p. (In Russian)

23. Spravochnik vodokhranilishch SSSR, Ch. I, Vodokhranilishcha ob”emom 10 mln m3 i bolee [Reference book of reservoirs of the USSR, pt. I, Reservoirs with a volume of 10 million m3 and more], Moscow, Soyuzvodproekt Publ., 1988, 323 p. (In Russian)

24. Ukazaniya po raschetu ispareniya s poverkhnosti vodoemov |Guidelines for calculation of evaporation from the surface of water bodies], Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1969, 83 p. (In Russian)

25. Voda Rossii. Rechnye basseiny |Water of Russia. River basins], Chernyaev A.M. (ed.), Ekaterinburg, “AKVA-PRESS” Publ., 2000, 536 p. (In Russian)

26. Vuglinskii V.S. Vodnye resursy i vodnyi balans krupnykh vodokhranilishch SSSR |Water resources and water balance of large reservoirs in the USSR], Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 1991, 223 p. (In Russian)

27. Zaikov B.D. Isparenie s vodnoi poverkhnosti prudov i malykh vodokhranilishch na territorii SSSR |Evaporation from the water surface of ponds and small reservoirs in the USSR], Trudy GGI, 1949, iss. 21(75), 54 p. (In Russian)

28. Arkhiv pogody. Meteostantsiya Voronezh |Weather archive. Voronezh Weather Station], URL: https://rp5.ru (access date 15.06.2019).

29. Baza dannykh FGBU “Tsentr Rossiiskogo registra gidrotekhnicheskikh sooruzhenii” |Database of FSBI “Center for the Russian Register of Hydraulic Structures”], URL: http://www.waterinfo.ru/ (access date 10.12.2020).