Can the COVID-19 pandemic inspire suburbanization in Central Russia?

Abstract

The paper continues research of balance between urbanization, sub- and de-urbanization in Russia, with two latter processes in a specific form of recurrent and seasonal suburban mobility of urban population. Possibilities and specific aspects of the mass drain of urban population to suburban residences in 2020 are considered in connection with the pandemic and introduced restrictions. Financial, socio-institutional and residential potential of transition from seasonal suburban mobility to actual sub- and de-urbanization are analyzed for the areas at different distances from Moscow, in particular the nearest and outer municipalities of the Moscow Oblast, northern and southern areas of the Yaroslavl Oblast, and the most distanced from Moscow municipality in the Kostroma Oblast. Despite a large number and variety of summer cottages, possible start of sub- and de-urbanization even during the crisis period depends on distance and local amenities. As for the Moscow Oblast, a longer 2020 stay in the countryside including the cold season shows that the urban population is psychologically ready to move outside the cities, and the stress suburbanization partly becomes a permanent one. The drivers for de-urbanization are insufficient within the mid- and long-distance locations (except for individual enthusiastic cases). Lack of interest in new residents from the local authorities, low quality of roads, general absence of piped gas and water supply in the center of Russia, decline of the social environment caused by the merger of smaller municipalities, all of this make flows of the Muscovites to rural territories and small towns rather irregular and unsteady.