Forecasting of probable socio-economic losses from natural hazards (case study of the "Northern Caucasus resorts" tourist cluster)
Abstract
The article proposes a methodological approach to forecasting potential damage from natural hazards in case of large-scale ski tourism investment projects planning, as well as to assessing changes in the vulnerability of affected territories. The study aim is to elaborate and test a methodology of predicting the maximum socio-economic losses and vulnerability changes in the regions of the "Northern Caucasus Resorts" tourist cluster objects localization for a long-term period. According to the authors’ estimates, if the "Northern Caucasus Resorts" tourist cluster will be created the number of people potentially inhabiting the avalanche-prone zones will increase significantly in all municipalities of its objects localization, which increases the individual death risk indicator for the territory. During the ski season the actual population could increase up to 30 times in some of the most remote and currently underdeveloped areas. The fixed assets will grow from 2 to 90 times in the municipalities under study, and the probable maximum losses will reach tens of billions roubles.
About the Authors
V. L. Baburin
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography, Department of Economic and Social Geography of Russia, Professor, D.Sc. in Geography
S. V. Badina
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics; Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia; Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Laboratory of Regional Policy and Regional Investment Processes, Senior Scientific Researcher; Senior Lecturer; Scientific Researcher, PhD in Geography
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Review
For citations:
Baburin V.L., Badina S.V. Forecasting of probable socio-economic losses from natural hazards (case study of the "Northern Caucasus resorts" tourist cluster). Lomonosov Geography Journal. 2021;(2):25-34. (In Russ.)
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