On the causes of the long-term variability of surface air temperature over the White Sea

Changes of the surface air temperature (SAT) over the White Sea are investigated. The inter-annual changes of mean SAT anomalies in the White Sea region for 1980-2010, calculated from various reanalyses, appeared to be in good agreement with each other. Furthermore, two reanalyses turned out to be the closest to the rest of data sources, i.e. high-resolution MERRA-2 for the period of satellite observations and NCEP/NCAR having lower resolution, but a longer period. Therefore, MERRA-2 was applied for the detailed analysis of SAT changes in various regions of the White Sea, and data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis - for the study of longer-term SAT changes in the entire White Sea region. In addition, the results were compared with the data on the surface water layer and surface air temperatures from the coastal and island hydrometeorological stations of the White Sea. Changes in the SAT anomalies were calculated for particular regions of the White Sea. Their analysis showed insignificant differences of the changes in SAT anomalies between the individual regions and the White Sea region as a whole. Therefore, the mean SAT anomalies were studied throughout the White Sea during further analysis of inter-annual fluctuations.

The analysis of monthly average SAT over the White Sea showed its significant growth over the past decades. Against the background of this growth, we revealed inter-annual SAT variability with periods close to the periods of El Nino - the Southern Oscillation (2-7 years) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (7-10 years). The influence of these fluctuations on the inter-annual variability of the White Sea SAT is shown and the periods of their synchronization and desynchronization are found. From the mid-1960s to the early 1970s and from the second half of the 1980s to the mid-2010s, during the El Nino events, negative SAT anomalies were usually observed over the White Sea, changing to the positive anomalies during the La Nina events. Between the late 1960s and mid-1990s the North Atlantic Oscillation had a positive effect on the anomalies in the surface air temperature of the White Sea, in the second half of the 1990s this influence changed sign, but since the beginning of the 2000s became positive again. We suggest a hypothesis on the role of Global Atmospheric Oscillation as a synchronizing link between the tropics of the Pacific Ocean, the North Atlantic and the White Sea region.

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