Vulnerability of the population of Moscow districts to natural hazards

The frequency of natural hazards, such as heat waves, epidemics, floods, hurricanes etc. tends to increase both in Russia and abroad. Under the climate change, population aging and accelerating mobility, increased urban density and environment degradation the residents of large cities are becoming more vulnerable to the consequences of such events. According to experts, more than 11 thousand people became victims of 2010 extreme summer temperatures in Moscow. The effects of the coronavirus epidemic are yet to be assessed, and it is important to study the socio-economic differences of Moscow districts in the context of crisis and expanding pandemic, considering the negative consequences for health and life of residents.

The authors propose a natural hazard vulnerability index for Moscow districts. The index accounts for the proportion of the most susceptible part of the population, as well as the possibility of adaptation of residents. Such social strata as pensioners, disabled persons, residents of poorer areas and migrants are the most vulnerable, i.e. incapable of self-protection or leaving a disaster area because of physical or financial restrictions. It was found that since 2010 the vulnerability of population has increased in 104 of 125 Moscow districts, as a result of increasing numbers of elderly and disabled people, and decreasing incomes in the depressed areas. Priority territories for implementing the policy of adaptation to hazardous events are in Zelenograd (Matushkino, Savelki, Staroe Kryukovo, Kryukovo, Silino), in the southeast (Nekrasovka, Veshnyaki) and the northeast (Northern Izmailovo, Metrogorodok, Golyanovo) parts of the capital. The adaptability in central districts, subjected to gentrification, is increasing due to the growing proportion of wealthy citizens.

As a result of the 2020 crisis, associated with the pandemic and the fall in oil prices, a decrease in household incomes could further aggravate the vulnerability of residents of the majority of Moscow districts; the most negative consequences are expected in more vulnerable areas. The results allow more precise application of natural hazards monitoring, warning and adaptation tools. For example, the above-mentioned vulnerable areas are in need of providing the timely ambulance access and raising awareness of the elderly locals and migrants.

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