Estimation of wind speed variability in the Black Sea region of Russia basing on selected models of the CMIP5 Project
Abstract
Basing on the comparative analysis with the data at meteorological stations, three models (GFDLCM3, IPSL-CM5B-LR and MPI-ESM-MR) of the CMIP5 project were identified, which best reproduce the intra-annual and interannual characteristics and the long-term trends of wind speed change in the Black Sea region of Russia. The selected models adequately reproduce the average wind speed (3–5 m/s) and its intra-annual cycle typical for the region with maximum in winter (5,0±0,5 m/s) and minimum in summer (3,0±0,5 m/s). Using the GFDL-CM3 model data, we showed possible decrease in wind speed by the middle of the XXI century (2046–2055) by 3–5% compared with the period of 2006–2015, when it was <0,3 m/s.
About the Authors
S. В. Krasheninnikova
A.O. Kovalevsky Institute of Marine Biological Research of RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Senior Scientific Researcher, Ph.D. in Geography
Deрartment of Functioning of Marine Ecosystems
M. A. Krasheninnikova
Institute of Natural-Technical Systems
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Junior Scientific Researcher
Laboratory of large-scale interaction of the ocean and atmosphere and the climate change
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Review
For citations:
Krasheninnikova S.В., Krasheninnikova M.A. Estimation of wind speed variability in the Black Sea region of Russia basing on selected models of the CMIP5 Project. Lomonosov Geography Journal. 2019;(6):60-66. (In Russ.)
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