WAVE CLIMATE OF THE BALTIC SEA FOLLOWING THE RESULTS OF THE SWAN SPECTRAL MODEL APPLICATION

Application of the SWAN wind wave model (with input data Reanalysis NCEP/NCAR) for theBaltic Seais discussed. High spatial resolution for the whole area of the sea and a longest period (over 60 years) of calculated wind wave parameters are characteristic of the study. The results of simulation are a good basis for further investigation of the climatic variability of wind waves. The results were compared with the data from the anchored buoys, available operative models of theBaltic Seaand the results of other researchers. High correlation of simulated and observed values was revealed, however the SWAN model on the average undervalue maximum wave height and peak periods. Statistical characteristics, such as correlation, mean regular error and standard deviation) were calculated to validate the model; their values are similar to those of other numerical experiments. The extremely severe storm caused by the Gudrun hurricane of 2005 is discussed more in detail. It was shown that the SWAN model adequately represents the real conditions, thus it is applicable for the shallowBaltic Sea. The storm situations were identified for the 63-year period, allowing the analysis of the climate variability of wind waves in theBaltic Sea. The overall trend of increasing storm intensity was revealed, as well as the 20-year periodicity with maxima in the 1970-s and 1990-s. 

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