THE PRESENT-DAY FACTORS OF ICE JAM FORMATION ON THE RIVERS OF THE SEVERNAYA DVINA RIVER BASIN
Abstract
Specific features of recent ice jams on the rivers of theSevernayaDvinaRiver basinare analyzed in relation to expected climate change and anthropogenic pressure. Different phases of the ice regime and its dangerous manifestations within theSevernayaDvinaRiver basinwere studied on the basis of monitoring data from 15 hydrological stations since the beginning of observations until 2015. Application of neural networks to predict maximum ice jam water level is considered. The best results for predicting the maximum ice jam water levels were obtained using the data about water levels during freezing and the duration of the autumn ice run, as well as the information on the sums of below-zero air temperature for the cold period. To predict the ice jam component of maximum water level it is necessary to consider data on ice thickness, and water flow before the break-up. Use of data on autumn conditions as predictors will allow making a long-term forecasts of the maximum ice-jam water levels, while the use of information for the period prior to break-up will define the ice-jam component of maximum water level more exactly. Positive experience of application of neural networks will help to develop the most effective recommendations to reduce negative water impacts on population and economy.
Supporting agencies: Russian Science Foundation (project № 14-37-00038)
About the Authors
S. A. Agafonova
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography, Department of Land Hydrology,
Research Scientist, PhD in Geography
A. N. Vasilenko
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography, Department of Land Hydrology,
student
N. L. Frolova
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Faculty of Geography, Department of Land Hydrology,
Professor, D.Sc. in Geography
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Review
For citations:
Agafonova S.A., Vasilenko A.N., Frolova N.L. THE PRESENT-DAY FACTORS OF ICE JAM FORMATION ON THE RIVERS OF THE SEVERNAYA DVINA RIVER BASIN. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 5, Geografiya. 2016;(2):82-90. (In Russ.)
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