EVALUATION OF THE SOCIAL-ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF NATURAL HAZARD- SUBJECTED TERRITORIES

Abstract

A methodology of assessing the vulnerability of socio-economic territorial systems of municipal level to natural hazards is suggested. A complex index of the density of socio-economic potential was designed for this purpose. Correlation of the index values with the degree of natural hazards exposure of a territory (both in space and time) will help to identify areas of the maximum risk. The methodology could be useful in territorial development planning or locating the investment projects, industrial and civil construction, infrastructure, etc. It could also help to ensure the safety of population and existing economic facilities taking into account the risk of natural hazards. The methodology provides for calculation of the socioeconomic potential of economically developed area rather than the administrative-territorial unit as a whole, thus contributing to the adequate evaluation of the natural hazards risk with due consideration of the spatial concentration of socio-economic potential. We also suggest a technique of calculating the gross municipal product (an analogue of the gross regional product) as a part of the methodology. The suggested methodology was tested for municipalities of the Northern Caucasus regions.