Thermodenudation-based regionalization of the Yamal peninsula

Climate change in the Arctic intensifies cryogenic relief-forming processes. Thermal denudation in northern Eurasia and North America, where wedge and tabular ground ice are widespread, occurs as a process that combines the melting of ice and frozen ground thawing accompanied by the downslope movement of thawed material. The result of the process is the formation of thermocirques and thermoterraces. Using remote sensing data with interactive interpretation and machine learning techniques, global databases of these landformsʼ distribution are being developed. The published databases provide new opportunities of further analyzing the spatial manifestations of the phenomena. The authors propose an explanation of the natural conditions and causes that determine the uneven distribution of thermocirques and thermoterraces on the Yamal Peninsula, as well as their future development under the changing conditions. The source data include the DARTS database of thermal denudation landforms in the Arctic, as well as information on the ice content in the upper layers of deposits, the distribution of ice wedges and tabular ground ice, and the relief dissection. To assess how changing permafrost conditions amplify thermal denudation, we used data on the changes of ground temperature at a depth of 2 m and the thickness of the active (seasonally thawed) layer from 1997 to 2021. We found that the presence of near-surface ground ice is a necessary but insufficient condition for the formation of thermocirques and thermoterraces. A key factor of their emergence and long-term activity is the vertical relief dissection, which enables the removal of thawed material from retreating headwalls to the local base of erosion. The authors have subdivided the Yamal Peninsula into zones based on the current intensity of thermal denudation. Four zones were identified, differing in the spatial density of thermal denudation landforms and in their predicted future development. These differences are determined by the cryogenic structure of the deposits, relief parameters and changes in the permafrost conditions.

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