Tick-borne infections in the Jewish autonomous region: mapping, assessment and forecast

The paper deals with the spatiotemporal analysis of the tick-borne infections spread in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast. The study used materials on tick bites of people and tick infection with pathogens of especially dangerous infections for the period from 2018 to 2022. Information was collected on five infections relevant to the region, namely tick-borne viral encephalitis, ixodic tick-borne borreliosis, Siberian tick-borne typhus, human granulocytic anaplasmosis, and human monocytic ehrlichiosis.

The distribution of tick-borne infections by administrative districts of the region was analyzed. It was found that ixodic tick-borne borreliosis is the most widespread one. Based on point data about the places where infected ticks were found and considering a number of natural factors, a map of the potential range of tickborne infections in the region was compiled. Taking into account the predicted climatic data for the period of 2081–2100 under the most severe SSP5-8.5 climatic scenario, a map of the predicted area of tick-borne infections for the territory of the Jewish Autonomous Oblast at the end of the 21st century was prepared. 

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