Hydrological regime of rivers in the Rostov region under the climate change

Due to a decrease in humidification of the territory, a decrease in average annual flow rates and water levels is typical to the vast majority of rivers, while there is a redistribution of the Don River flow within the year. It has been shown that the level regime of rivers largely depends on a complex of climatic, hydrological and water management factors, and its change, as a rule, is more pronounced than the changes in water discharge. The analysis of maximum water discharges showed the statistically significant negative trends at most hydrological stations with an average correlation coefficient of −0,33; no significant positive trends were identified. The analysis of the highest water levels showed the statistically significant negative trends also at most posts with an average correlation coefficient of −0,35. The frequency of floods, calculated over a long-term period, ranges from 0 to 26%, the average excess of critical levels is from 7 to 74 cm. Due to the widespread decrease in maximum flow rates and highest water levels, the probability of the dangerous hydrological phenomena associated with the passage of a seasonal flood wave is reduced. On the other hand, a continued increase in air temperature and a decrease in precipitation may cause a significant decrease in water flow of rivers in the future.

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