Water level regime in the Aidarkul–Tuzkan lake system (eastern Aral Sea region) in the 21^st century

The work deals with the assessment of possible changes in the level regime of a largest water body in Central Asia. The anthropogenic Aidar-Arnasay lake system is formed by the inflow of drainage waters from the eastward-situated irrigated lands. In the past periodic discharges of fresh water from the Shardara reservoir led to water level transgression in the lake system. The damming of the Arnasai lakes and the projected absence of fresh water inflow put a task of assessing water level change in the remaining Aidarkul-Tuzkan system, taking into account various options for the volume of drainage water inflow. The problem was solved on the basis of simulation modeling of the water balance stochastic equation for the lake system. If the current volume of the annual inflow is maintained, the future equilibrium water level will drop from the current level of 245 m abs to about 239 m abs. Under the increase of average inflow by 0.5 km³/year the level will fluctuate near the equilibrium level of 243 m abs. Under the same decrease in the average inflow the equilibrium level will drop to 236 m abs.

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